India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
The proposal may provide relief to the tune of Rs 9,000 crore to service providers.
We will find it difficult to exceed an average of 5 per cent growth in the medium term, warns Shankar Acharya, the former chief economic adviser.
Direct economic stimulus measures such as tax cuts for individuals and industry would have helped to prop up the Indian economy which was hit hard by the lockdowns across several states in India, say economists and corporate leaders. While the measures announced on Monday are focussed more on the supply side, these steps would take a lot of time to move the needle for the economy.
Of the Rs 20-lakh-crore package that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced to defend the economy against coronavirus disruptions, fresh support may be only around 60 per cent of the offer as it counts the first financial stimulus and liquidity support that Reserve Bank has given already, and will overburden the bond market, says a report.
Upbeat high-frequency indicators and consumer confidence show that Indian economy continues to forge ahead, emerging out of shackles of pandemic, said an article on the state of economy published in RBI Bulletin on Wednesday. The recovery is spearheaded by an uptick in private investment through November-December alongside a turnaround in bank credit offtake and high capex from the government sector (Centre and states). In conjunction, the employment situation has brightened, said the article written by RBI officials.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current fiscal, but flagged the "substantial" impact of broader lockdowns on the economy. In its report on Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions, S&P said the control of COVID-19 remains a key risk for the economy. New infections have spiked in recent weeks and the country is in the middle of a second pandemic wave.
As the voting process for the new Conservative Party leader formally opened with postal ballots being mailed out to Tory members from Monday, Rishi Sunak vowed to cut the basic rate of income tax by 20 per cent in a few years if he is elected Britain's prime minister.
The greatest disconnect lies in the estimates of industrial growth.
At all India level, per capita income will decline by 5.4 per cent in FY21 to Rs 1.43 lakh, the report said.
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India's gig workforce is expected to expand to 2.35 crore by 2029-30 from 77 lakh in 2020-21, a NITI Aayog report said on Monday, and recommended extending social security measures for such workers and their families in partnership mode as envisaged in Code on Social Security. The report titled 'India's Booming Gig and Platform Economy' further said gig workers are expected to form 6.7 per cent of the non-agricultural workforce or 4.1 per cent of the total livelihood in India by 2029-30. Gig workers can be broadly classified into platform and non-platform workers.
Xi does not want to risk any political or economic crisis complicating his bid to remain in office, observes Ambassador Shyam Saran, the former foreign secretary.
The Reserve Bank has projected the economy to grow by 8-8.5 per cent in 2008-09. Inflation will be brought under 5.5 per cent, RBI said.
Though the NITI Aayog did not give its estimates for the required GDP growth at constant prices, economists pegged it at 9 per cent, a feat not seen since the GDP series was revised with 2011-12 as the base year.
Moody's and Fitch on Thursday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating to 'junk' grade following severe sanctions by western countries. While Moody's Investors Service downgraded Russia's long-term issuer and senior unsecured (local-and foreign-currency) debt ratings to 'B3' from 'Baa3', Fitch pulled down the rating on the country to 'B' from 'BBB', putting it on 'Rating Watch Negative'. The downgraded rating is in speculative or junk category reflecting default risk. It signifies that even through financial commitments are currently being met, the sovereign is vulnerable to high credit risk.
'Increased allocations for MNREGA could have provided the much needed push to rural demand and consumption at a time when recovery continues to remain uneven.'
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
From the 30-share basket, 28 scrips suffered losses. Over 200 stocks were at their 52-week low in Tuesday's trade.
India has the lowest labour force participation rate in South Asia and one of the lowest in the world, points out Aakar Patel.
While presenting her 2021-22 Union Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had set a fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) against the 2020-21 Revised Estimate of 9.5 per cent. The fiscal correction in the upcoming 2022-23 Union Budget is unlikely to be that steep. Even as discussions among top Budget-makers are ongoing, the fiscal deficit target for 2022-23 may likely be in the range of 6.5-6.8 per cent.
India's public debt ratio, which remarkably remained stable at around 70 per cent of the GDP since 1991, is projected to jump by 17 percentage points to nearly 90 per cent because of increase in public spending due to COVID-19, the IMF said.
Undeterred by the stock market volatility, uncertainty due to the Ukraine-Russia war and high inflation, equity mutual funds continue to remain attractive choice for investors for the 15th straight month, registering a net inflow of Rs 18,529 crore in May on robust SIP numbers. This was higher than Rs 15,890 crore net inflow in April, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed on Thursday. Equity schemes have been witnessing net inflow since March 2021, highlighting the positive sentiment among investors.
CSO revised downwards the construction sector numbers, which account for nearly 9 per cent of India's GDP, for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. This revision to 6.9 per cent as against the initial estimate of 12.6 per cent leads to 40 basis point upside to GDP growth. For agriculture, CSO revised the growth numbers to 2.2 per cent as against the initial estimate of 3.5 per cent. This led to higher agriculture growth of 2.7 per cent in January-March 2009.
Stating that India's economic stimulus was not adequate, Banerjee said, the measures did not increase consumption spending of lower income people as the government was not willing to put money in the hands of the low income population.
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
Finance Ministry had pegged the growth at 5.7 per cent and RBI at 5.5 per cent.
Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy is yet to recover from the impact of the second Covid wave.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel began its three-day deliberations on Monday to decide the next monetary policy amid expectations that the central bank will maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate in the backdrop of global scare due to the new coronavirus variant Omicron. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution on Wednesday. If the RBI maintains status quo in policy rates on Wednesday, it would be the ninth consecutive time since the rate remains unchanged.
'The question is, how soon we can expect to re-attain the pre-lockdown levels of output and income.'
Lauding the farm sector for demonstrating resilience during the pandemic, the Economic Survey on Friday suggested the government to see farm sector as a "modern business enterprise" for which "urgent reforms" are required to enable sustainable and consistent growth. India's agricultural sector has shown its resilience amid the adversities of COVID-19 induced lockdowns, the Survey noted. The agriculture and allied activities were the sole bright spot amid the slide in GDP performance of other sectors, clocking a growth rate of 3.4 per cent at constant prices during 2020-21, it added. According to the Survey, the farm sector has got "renewed thrust" due to various measures on credit, market reforms and food processing under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat announcements.
Had Finance Minister Sitharaman thought a little more about the middle class, disadvantaged sections, and the poor who are struggling, it would have been an inclusive Budget that would have made history, notes Ramesh Menon.
The statement comes in the wake of two independent members of the NSC, P C Mohanan and J V Meenakshi, quitting the Commission over disagreements with the government on the back-series GDP data and delay in release of labour force survey. Mohanan was also the acting chairperson of the Commission.
In years past, we often approached the Budget expecting to see changes in direct and indirect taxes. Those days are behind us. The Budget of today seeks to expand the economy and keep it at the forefront of technology, observes Harsh Goenka.
Stating that COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India, the rating agency in a statement said the government stimulus package is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic. "The COVID-19 outbreak in India and two months of lockdown -- longer in some areas -- have led to a sudden stop in the economy. That means growth will contract sharply this fiscal year (April 2020 to March 2021)," it said. "Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world."
The beneficiaries of the second set of announcements are expected to be micro, small, and medium enterprises, farmers, women, poor, migrant workers, and other marginalised sections of the society, reports Arup Roychoudhury.
'We forecast real GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 per cent in the year ending March 2018.' 'However, as disruption fades, we expect to see a rebound in real GDP growth to 7.5 per cent in the next fiscal year.'
Spending continues to be less as people who are getting direct benefits from the government are choosing to save in the current situation.
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